March Madness Odds: East Region Betting Predictions

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Is Temple basketball back under the magnifying glass of the bodies that regulate sports betting? U.S. Integrity, a gambling watchdog outfit, broadcast an alert on Thursday to casinos about anomalous betting activity on the game between Temple and UAB. One casino saw the line move from UAB -1.5 to UAB -8 on the day of the game before dropping to UAB -7 near tipoff. The Blazers dismantled Temple, 100-72, on the road. That was the Owls’ second straight loss – and the second straight game in which the Owls did not even come near covering their end of the spread. They took on Tulsa at home on Saturday as 5 ½-point favorites but lost by five. Tulsa started the game on a 16-2 run and never looked back. The Owls (11-19, 4-14 AAC) have been on U.S. Integrity’s radar for some time now. As we head into the high-volume wagering season of March Madness, let’s look at some NCAAB betting trends you’ll need to keep in mind.

NCAA Men’s Basketball: 2024 Important March Madness Betting Trends | College Basketball Odds

 

NCAAB: Only two 1-seeds have ever lost to a 16-seed, but…

Those two upsets have come since 2018. Back then it was Virginia falling to Maryland-Baltimore County, and last year it was Purdue falling to Fairleigh Dickinson. Before 2018, only two 16-seeds had ever come within a basket of knocking off the top seed. Pete Carrill’s Princeton Tigers used their grinding pace and backdoor-cut passing game to sneak within a point of beatin Georgetown (50-49), and East Tennessee State almost knocked off Oklahoma (72-71). So a 1-seed is still virtually a lock to win.

 

NCAAB: 1-seeds cover when the spreads are reasonable

A 20-point spread is sizable in basketball, particularly when you’re dealing with the national tournament. The mid-majors head to the tournament with visions of knocking off the titans of the sport, while the top teams face pressure, particularly in that opening round. A cold-shooting opening to the game can make covering a 20-point spread less than reasonable, and even your 16-seeds have figured out how to play the game well enough to win their own conference. When the spread is under 20, the last five seasons have produced a cover rate for the 1-seeds in the first round at just under 80%. Yes, that includes those two straight-up losses in 2018 and 2023.

 

NCAAB: 1-seeds make the Sweet 16 about 86 percent of the time

The next round pits the 1-seed against the winner between the 8-seed and the 9-seed. Hypothetically, this would be the lowest-ranked team remaining in the bracket if the favorites take care of business. Between 1985 and 2023, 1-seeds went 126-21 (an 85.7% win rate) in the second round. That’s a lot better than 2-seeds (93-45) have done in the second round.

 

NCAAB: The 7-10 matchup isn’t as close as you think

The NCAA tournament has a reputation for upsets, adn a well-deserved one. So you might think that the 7-10 matchup is a coin-flip. The 10-seeds are often the Power 5 teams that were in the middle of their conference standings, while the 7-seeds are often the mid-major champions. The grueling nature of the Power 5 schedule often prepares those teams for a deeper run in the national tournament. Between 1985 and 2023, the 7-seeds won 60.8% of the 7-10 matchups. With that said…

 

NCAAB: 10-seeds do well getting to the Sweet 16

If the 10-seed can get by the 7-seed, they have a 42.9% win rate in the Round of 32 (25-34 between 1985 and 2023). So if you back a 10-seed, consider backing it all the way through the first weekend. Look at that team’s record down the stretch – the last couple weeks of the regular season as well as their conference tournament. If they’re hot, they could zip through those first two games and make the second weekend.

 

NCAAB: Don’t overlook the First Four

Those eight teams that play in Dayton, for some reason, a few days ahead of the official first round of the NCAA tournament, often end up doing more damage than you might expect in the “real” bracket. Between 2011, when the First Four first appeared, and 2019, at least one of the teams that advanced from that play-in and then had to travel on a day’s notice somewhere else in the nation (instead of already starting in the arena where they would play a few days later). In 2021, UCLA started out in the First Four…and rolled all the way to the Final Four, where it took a buzzer-beater from Gonzaga to end their season. Notre Dame stopped 6-seed Alabama as an 11-seed after escaping Rutgers in double overtime in the First Four.

 

NCAAB: What about the 9-seeds?

The 9-seeds have stopped the 8-seeds in the first round 76 times (and failed 72 times) between 1985 and 2023. The position of the selection committee is that they view the eight 8- and 9-seeds as virtual equals. So when you look at the Round of 32, a strange number emerges. Eight-seeds who win in the first round have a 15-56 record (21.1% win rate) between 1985 and 2023, while 9-seeds only win 9.2% of the time (7-69).

 

NCAAB: Follow the underdog, not the seed in 8-9 matchups

The underdog has covered in 30 of the last 52 matchups between 8- and 9-seeds in March Madness. Since the committee is basically flipping a coin with the seeding, it makes sense that the sports betting community might be overvaluing the top seed – or the historical track record of the favorite program.

 

NCAAB: The 11-seed is where it’s at

Between 2011 and 2023, the 11-seed has a 25-23 record against the 6-seed. The 2017 tournament saw the University of Rhode Island, USC and Xavier all advance as 11-seeds. Xavier rode that momentum all the way to the Elite Eight that year. In 2019, Syracuse and Loyola-Chicago made it multiple rounds into the tournament as 11-seeds. The 2022 tournament saw Iowa State, Michigan and Notre Dame all win as 11-seeds. Iowa State and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16.

 

NCAAB: The fun stops at the 12-seed

We spend a lot of time hearing about the parity in college basketball, and it’s interesting that 12-seeds (53-95 between 1985 and 2023, 36.8% win rate) are about as good as 11-seeds (57-91, 39.5%) in the opening round. The 13-seeds, though, are just 31-117 in the first round, a 21.5% win rate. So teams like 15-seed Saint Peter’s, who rode all the way to the Elite Eight in 2022, are fun to remember – but are sports betting rarities.

 

NCAAB: Historical oddities

Boise State (0-8), Eastern Kentucky (0-8), Belmont (0-8), and Nebraska (0-7) have never won a March Madness game – a combined 0-31. But then there’s Gonzaga, with a perfect 13-0 record in the first round since 2009.

 

NCAAB: Adjusted defensive efficiency and the Final Four

This statistic was the brainchild of Ken Pomeroy and measures the points allowed per 100 possessions multiplied by the national average defensive efficiency divided by a team’s opponents’ offensive efficiency. Got all that?

Since the 2012 tournament, just three Final Four teams have not been found on KenPom’s Top 40 in adjusted deficiency: Kansas (47th) in 2018, UCLA (46th) in 2021, and Duke (49th) in 2022. Of the 40 national semifinal teams in that stretch, 17 cracked the top ten in that metric. Nine cracked the top 3. So remember adjusted defensive efficiency when you’re looking at your bracket.

 

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