On this Wednesday, May 7, the Reds (18–17) travel to Atlanta to begin a series against the Braves (15–18). The Reds will counter with right-hander Hunter Greene, while Atlanta will start Max Fried. When this midweek match begins, both teams are trying to improve their standing in their respective divisions. Get expert insight on pitching matchups, core hitters, and strategy angles for this game.
Intro & Slate Overview
Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate features a captivating 9-game card, with one of the most anticipated matchups between the Braves and Reds at Truist Park. The game carries a Vegas total of 9.0 and a spread favoring ATL -1.5.
Check out our other prediction for the New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres game!
Top Pitching Picks
Starting pitcher M. Fried enters today priced at $9,500 and faces a Reds team that has struggled to generate consistent offense. With solid control and a high strikeout rate, he’s an appealing option for cash games. On the other hand, L. Castillo at $8,200 offers GPP potential, with his ability to generate ground balls and limit hard contact.
Top Hitter & Matchups
For hitters, O. Albies from the Braves stands out, priced at $4,900. He’s shown excellent splits against right-handed pitchers, especially in hitter-friendly Truist Park. His combination of power and speed makes him a strong pick across formats.
Stack Strategy
Given the favorable hitting environment at Truist Park, stacking Braves bats, particularly against a Reds bullpen prone to giving up big innings, is a sound strategy. Consider value options like M. Olson or A. Riley to fill out your lineup, as they provide solid upside at a reasonable price.
Value Plays
Look to players under $3,500 for potential value. Players like N. Senzel from the Reds could return value in tournaments, especially if he finds himself in a prime position against left-handed pitching.
Weather Impact
Weather could have an impact at Truist Park, with winds forecasted out to CF at 10mph. This could lead to a slight boost for power hitters, so expect the ball to carry, especially on days with high humidity.
Betting Angle & Game Script
The game sits at ATL -1.5, with an over/under of 9.0, signaling expectations for decent scoring output. With both teams in favorable hitting conditions, DFS players might want to lean into stacking Braves bats or focusing on the Reds’ potential contrarian plays for leverage.
Check out our other prediction for the Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins game!
Pitching Strategy Deep Dive
M. Fried offers one of the higher floors for cash games, but his price tag at $9,500 will likely limit flexibility elsewhere in lineup construction. L. Castillo, with his affordability at $8,200, is a prime GPP option, especially when facing a Braves team prone to high strikeout rates.
Game Environment Analysis
Truist Park presents a dynamic offensive environment, with a 9.0 game total indicating solid scoring expectations. The wind direction out to center field may aid power hitters, and both teams bring explosive offenses. Expect a solid amount of offensive output, with both teams showing potential for high-scoring innings.
Advanced Metrics Matchup
Slate Construction & Ownership Leverage
With many DFS players expected to gravitate towards higher-profile games, focusing on the Braves’ offense offers ownership leverage. Considering potential lower ownership for players like Senzel or Moustakas from the Reds, they could be strategic one-off plays in tournaments.
Check out our other prediction for the Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals game!
Final Thoughts & Strategy Wrap-up
Wednesday’s slate presents intriguing pitching matchups and hitting environments. Given the favorable conditions for hitters at Truist Park, consider stacking Braves players or looking for lower-owned Reds bats for potential upside. Stay on top of weather changes, lineup announcements, and ownership projections to make the most informed decisions for GPPs and cash games.
Sources: https://baseball.realgm.com/, https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/mlb/, https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/mlb, https://www.statsinsider.com.au/
