Reds vs. Pirates Preview: One-on-One Odds, Picks & Prediction

On Tuesday, September 23, the Cincinnati Reds (80-76) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (67-89) at Great American Ball Park in a key late-season game with playoff implications for the Reds. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET. The probable starters are Brady Singer for Cincinnati and Johan Oviedo for Pittsburgh. This matchup features contrasting trajectories, with the Reds fighting to stay in the Wild Card hunt, and the Pirates playing out the string. Here’s an expert preview, betting insight, and prediction.

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Match Overview

Detail	Information
Date	Tuesday, 23 September 2025
Time	6:40 PM ET
Venue	Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Teams	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
League	Major League Baseball (MLB)

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The Pirates visit Great American Ball Park to take on a Reds squad that is looking to secure its place in the postseason. The Reds enter this game on a five-game winning streak and are under pressure to keep momentum. Pittsburgh, having already fallen out of playoff contention, will look to play spoiler. Singer takes the mound for Cincy, while Oviedo gets the start for Pittsburgh. Given the home advantage, recent success, and stronger starting pitcher profile, Cincinnati is expected to be the favourite, with most betting markets laying Reds on the moneyline. The total runs line is set around 8.5, suggesting the expectation is for a moderately high-scoring contest.

ALSO READ: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks (Sept 24, 2025)

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Game Odds & Lines

Bet Type	Odds
Moneyline	Reds: approx. -158 • Pirates: approx. +132
Run Line	Reds −1.5 at around +140 • Pirates +1.5
Total Runs (O/U)	8.5; Over/Under both near even money (≈ −110)

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Starting Pitchers

Team	Starting Pitcher	Key Stats & Notes
Cincinnati Reds	Brady Singer	14-10 record, 3.86 ERA over ~161 innings pitched. More reliable, deeper outings, good strikeout rate vs. walks. Stronger at home.
Pittsburgh Pirates	Johan Oviedo	2-0 record, 3.52 ERA in limited starts (~30.2 IP). Good underlying stuff but control issues (walks) and has yet to consistently pitch deep into games.

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ALSO READ: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles One-on-One Prediction & Odds (Sept 23, 2025)

Weather & Ballpark Conditions

• Venue: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, which tends to favour hitters, especially in terms of home runs and scoring potential.
• No major weather concerns reported that would severely affect play. Slight chance of mild breeze; conditions are expected to be typical of late September nights.

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Last 5 Games Record

Team	Last 5 Games
Cincinnati Reds	W, W, W, W, W (5-game win streak)
Pittsburgh Pirates	L, L, L, W, W (some recent wins vs. weaker opponents)

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Head-to-Head Record

Stat	Value
Season Series (2025)	Reds lead Pirates, about 6-4 in matchups before this game.
Recent Meetings	Reds have had the upper hand lately; Pirates have struggled on the road vs. Cincy.

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Key Insights & Betting Trends

• Home field edge: The Reds are much stronger at home; they tend to hit, and their pitching is more comfortable in front of home crowd.
• Pitching contrast: Singer gives a more proven, higher-workload profile; Oviedo is promising but has been more limited, especially in stamina and consistency.
• Offensive weapons: For the Reds, bats like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer are dangerous, especially at home. Pirates have some threats (Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds) but less depth.
• Total run trends: Recent Reds-Pirates games have often been under or around similar totals (8.5); some betting markets anticipate a moderate scoring output. However, given home park and power bats, there is upside for more runs.

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Expert Picks & Recommended Bets

• Moneyline: Reds to win (≈ −158)
• Run Line: Reds −1.5 looks good; potential value here given their momentum and Oviedo’s limitations
• Total Runs: Over 8.5 is plausible, especially if Reds hit early and score pressure develops

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Predicted Outcome

Cincinnati enters this game with more urgency, better overall recent form, and a starting pitcher who has delivered more consistently. The Pirates will try to stay competitive, but likely won’t have enough bullpen depth or offensive firepower to overcome the Reds at home. Expect a moderately high scoring affair but with Reds taking control mid-game. I predict a Reds win, something like 6-3.

Sources: https://www.oddsshark.com/, https://www.cbssports.com/, https://www.foxsports.com/, https://www.mybookie.ag/sportsbook/