Orioles vs Rays Preview: Underdog Value in Tampa Showdown

The Orioles visit the Rays on July 19 in a tightly matched AL showdown. Despite Tampa being slight favorites, Baltimore’s strong form and head-to-head edge make them a sharp run line pick. Expect a close, low-scoring game in Tampa.

Match Overview

Date	Time (ET)	Venue	Teams	League
Saturday, July 19, 2025	7:05 PM	George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL	Orioles vs. Rays	MLB

Intro Content
On Saturday, July 19, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will face the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET. The Rays are favored at –128 moneyline, while the Orioles are underdogs at +109. Tampa Bay is also the 1.5-run run line favorite (–150), with the Orioles at +130. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs (Over –110 / Under –110).

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Game Odds & Lines

Bet Type	Odds
Moneyline	Orioles: +109 • Rays: –128
Run Line	Orioles +1.5: +130 • Rays –1.5: –150
Total Runs (O/U)	Over 7.5: –110 • Under 7.5: –110

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Starting Pitchers

Team	Pitcher
Orioles	Dean Kremer (8–7, 4.24 ERA)
Rays	Zack Littell (8–7, 3.56 ERA)

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Last 5 Games Record

Team	Last 5 Games (W–L)
Orioles	3–2 (Wins vs Marlins ×2, Mets ×2)
Rays	1–4 (only win vs Tigers)

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Head‑to‑Head Record

Category	Since 2001	In 2025 Season
Overall H2H	Rays lead 165–132	Orioles lead 4–3

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Weather & Ballpark Conditions

Category	Details
Forecast	Mostly clear, 81°F
Wind	Blowing out to right field at 6 mph
Humidity	71%
Ballpark Factor	Slight edge to hitters due to warm, humid air and wind blowing out

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Key Insights & Betting Trends

• Orioles 3‑2 in last 5 games
• Rays struggling at 1‑4 recently
• Littell has dominated Kremer head‑to‑head
• Orioles 4–3 vs Rays this season overall
• Total hit directly on Over 50 % in H2H matchups

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Expert Picks & Recommended Bets

• Moneyline: Rays –128
• Run Line: Orioles +1.5 @ +130
• Total Runs: Under 7.5 @ –110

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Predicted Outcome

This one features a strong contrast: Kremer has been reliable lately, while Littell presents the sharper ERA (3.56 vs 4.24). Tampa Bay is slight moneyline favorite, but their overall slump (1–4 in last five) suggests vulnerability. The Orioles’ recent run of success and favorable season head‑to‑head record (4–3) gives them a solid shot, especially with +1.5 cushion. Expect a low‑scoring, tight contest — Rays win 4–3, but Baltimore covers the run line.

Courtesy: https://www.oddsshark.com, https://www.foxsports.com/, https://www.statsinsider.com