Phillies vs. Padres July 14, 2025: Betting Preview and Predictions
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Despite both teams’ recent success, the Padres host the Phillies in San Diego on July 14 with Cristopher Sánchez and Nick Pivetta on the mound. The Phillies are the slight favourites in this low-scoring, closely contested game.
Match Overview
Date
Time ET
Venue
Teams
League
Monday 14 July 2025
4:10 p.m. ET
PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
Padres @ Phillies
MLB
On Monday, July 14, 2025, the San Diego Padres will face the Philadelphia Phillies at PETCO Park in San Diego. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of –130, while the Padres are underdogs at +110. The Phillies are also favored on the run line at –1.5 (+135), and the game’s over/under is set at 7.0 runs (Over –125 / Under +105).
Game Odds & Lines
Bet Type
Odds
Moneyline
Padres +110 • Phillies –130
Run Line
Padres +1.5 –160 • Phillies –1.5 +135
Total Runs (O/U)
Over 7.0 –125 • Under 7.0 +105
Starting Pitchers
Team
Pitcher (W–L, ERA)
Padres
Nick Pivetta (9–2, 3.07)
Phillies
Cristopher Sánchez (7–2, 2.59)
Last 5 Games Record
Team
Last 5 Games
Padres
W–L–W–W–L (3–2)
Phillies
W–L–L–W–W (3–2)
Head-to-Head Record (Last 5 Meetings)
Date
Winner
Score
Jul 13
Phillies
2–1
Jul 12
Padres
5–4
Jul 11
Padres
4–2
Jul 2
Phillies
5–1
Jul 2
Padres
6–4
Weather & Ballpark Conditions
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 77°F
Wind: Light/moderate, varying directions
Humidity: Mid‑70s%
Ballpark Factor: Neutral to slight edge hitters (PETCO Park)
Key Insights & Betting Trends
Padres are moneyline underdogs but have covered in 4 of last 5 underdog games
Phillies’ Sánchez carries a dominant 1.54 ERA over his last 5 starts
Padres are just 50‑50 in total-run games recently—volatility around 7-run line
Phillies have won ~64% when favored –162 or shorter
Model probability: Phillies 53%, Padres 47%
Expert Picks & Recommended Bets
Moneyline: Phillies –130
Run Line: Phillies –1.5 @ +135
Total Runs: Under 7.0 @ +105
Predicted Outcome
Pitching matchup favors the Phillies, with Sánchez outperforming Pivetta’s analytics metrics (lower ERA, xERA, FIP). Philadelphia’s offense is slightly more reliable, especially at home, which gives them a tangible edge. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair with the Phillies eking out a victory, likely covering the run line given their recent form and home-field advantage.
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