Pirates Seek Home Upset vs. Diamondbacks in PNC Showdown

The Pirates will host the Diamondbacks in a highly anticipated MLB game on July 26 at PNC Park. Pittsburgh provides underdog value due to its momentum and strong recent performance. In a low-scoring game, experts predict that the Pirates will cover the run line.

Match Overview

Date	Time (ET)	Venue
Saturday, 26 July 2025	6:40 PM ET	PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Teams	League
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Major League Baseball (MLB)

Intro Content
On Saturday, 26 July 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET. The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of ≈ –124 (implied ~‑124), while the Pirates are underdogs at ≈ +104. Arizona is also the run line favorite (Diamondbacks –1.5 at ≈ +136; Pirates +1.5 at ≈ –163), and the game’s over/under is set at 9.0 runs.

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Game Odds & Lines

Bet Type	Odds
Moneyline	Diamondbacks: –124 • Pirates: +104
Run Line	Diamondbacks –1.5: +136 • Pirates +1.5: –163
Total Runs (O/U)	Over 9.0: ~–102 • Under 9.0: ~–119

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Starting Pitchers

Team	Pitcher (W‑L, ERA)
Away (Arizona)	Ryne Nelson (6‑2, 3.52 ERA)
Home (Pittsburgh)	Mike Burrows (1‑3, 4.70 ERA)

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Weather & Ballpark Conditions

Ballpark Factor: No weather details disclosed; typical PNC Park conditions slightly favor pitchers given its dimensions and summer wind patterns.

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Last 5 Games Record

Team	Last 5 Games (SU – Straight Up)
Arizona Diamondbacks	2‑3
Pittsburgh Pirates	3‑2

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Head‑to‑Head Record

Matchup	Record (this season)	Over/Under Record
Diamondbacks vs Pirates	5‑5	6‑4 to the Over

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Key Insights & Betting Trends

• Pirates ATS in last 5: 3‑2
• Diamondbacks favored ATS at 9‑2 when Nelson starts
• Pirates hitting total Over in 2 of last 5
• Diamondbacks as favorite ~50% win rate when favored by ~–125
• Pirates home ATS weaker (23‑27 away) vs road teams

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Expert Picks & Recommended Bets

Bet Type	Pick & Odds
Moneyline	Pirates @ +104
Run Line	Pirates +1.5 @ –163
Total Runs	Under 9.0 @ –119

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Predicted Outcome

While the Diamondbacks are slightly favored and have home‑field confidence in Nelson’s starts (~66 % win rate when ML favorite), their overall consistency is shaky. The Pirates, playing better at PNC Park, have momentum and favorable value backing them as +1.5 underdogs. Burrows generally struggles but match conditions point to a low‑scoring tight game. Expect the Pirates to keep it close and potentially pull off the upset. Final call: Pirates win or cover the run line.

Courtesy: https://www.oddsshark.com, https://www.foxsports.com/, https://www.statsinsider.com