Pirates Seek Home Upset vs. Diamondbacks in PNC Showdown
The Pirates will host the Diamondbacks in a highly anticipated MLB game on July 26 at PNC Park. Pittsburgh provides underdog value due to its momentum and strong recent performance. In a low-scoring game, experts predict that the Pirates will cover the run line.
Match Overview
Date
Time (ET)
Venue
Saturday, 26 July 2025
6:40 PM ET
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Teams
League
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Major League Baseball (MLB)
Intro Content On Saturday, 26 July 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET. The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of ≈ –124 (implied ~‑124), while the Pirates are underdogs at ≈ +104. Arizona is also the run line favorite (Diamondbacks –1.5 at ≈ +136; Pirates +1.5 at ≈ –163), and the game’s over/under is set at 9.0 runs.
Game Odds & Lines
Bet Type
Odds
Moneyline
Diamondbacks: –124 • Pirates: +104
Run Line
Diamondbacks –1.5: +136 • Pirates +1.5: –163
Total Runs (O/U)
Over 9.0: ~–102 • Under 9.0: ~–119
Starting Pitchers
Team
Pitcher (W‑L, ERA)
Away (Arizona)
Ryne Nelson (6‑2, 3.52 ERA)
Home (Pittsburgh)
Mike Burrows (1‑3, 4.70 ERA)
Weather & Ballpark Conditions
Ballpark Factor: No weather details disclosed; typical PNC Park conditions slightly favor pitchers given its dimensions and summer wind patterns.
Last 5 Games Record
Team
Last 5 Games (SU – Straight Up)
Arizona Diamondbacks
2‑3
Pittsburgh Pirates
3‑2
Head‑to‑Head Record
Matchup
Record (this season)
Over/Under Record
Diamondbacks vs Pirates
5‑5
6‑4 to the Over
Key Insights & Betting Trends
Pirates ATS in last 5: 3‑2
Diamondbacks favored ATS at 9‑2 when Nelson starts
Pirates hitting total Over in 2 of last 5
Diamondbacks as favorite ~50% win rate when favored by ~–125
Pirates home ATS weaker (23‑27 away) vs road teams
Expert Picks & Recommended Bets
Bet Type
Pick & Odds
Moneyline
Pirates @ +104
Run Line
Pirates +1.5 @ –163
Total Runs
Under 9.0 @ –119
Predicted Outcome
While the Diamondbacks are slightly favored and have home‑field confidence in Nelson’s starts (~66 % win rate when ML favorite), their overall consistency is shaky. The Pirates, playing better at PNC Park, have momentum and favorable value backing them as +1.5 underdogs. Burrows generally struggles but match conditions point to a low‑scoring tight game. Expect the Pirates to keep it close and potentially pull off the upset. Final call: Pirates win or cover the run line.
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