Pirates vs Twins: Joe Ryan and Paul Skenes headline a high-stakes pitchers’ duel as the Twins host the Pirates on Friday at Target Field. Minnesota enters as slight favorites, backed by strong strikeout trends and public betting. With a projected final score of 5-4 in favor of the Twins, betting action leans toward the home team and the Over.
The Minnesota Twins will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field on Friday, July 11, with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Joe Ryan (8-4, 2.76 ERA) gets the start for Minnesota, while rookie standout Paul Skenes (4-7, 1.94 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh. This marks the opener of a three-game interleague series and features a highly anticipated pitchers’ duel.
Simulations give the Twins a slight edge with a 54% win probability. With strikeout trends leaning heavily in Joe Ryan’s favor, Minnesota bettors are showing confidence in the home team. The game will be televised on SportsNet Pittsburgh and TWTV.
Pirates vs Twins: Why Ryan could dominate the Pirates lineup
This matchup lines up well for Joe Ryan. The Pirates have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league over the past month, with six of nine projected starters striking out at a clip above 23%. Ryan, who excels against right-handed hitters, will face a lineup with six righties—making his strikeout prop one of the day’s top plays.
Top prop bet: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-137)
Betting splits: Public backing the Twins and the Over
63% of bets and money are on the Twins to cover the spread.
- 64% of bets and 52% of moneyline handle back the Twins to win.
- 69% of bets and 63% of money are on the Over (O/U set at 6.5).
The moneyline opened with Minnesota as a -130 favorite, while Pittsburgh sits at +110. The run total is hovering at 6.5, with over bettors leaning in at +105.
Twins vs Pirates: Key betting insights
Pirates’ best recent betting trends
- Team Total Under has hit in 58 of their last 93 games.
- Game Total Under has cashed in 49 of 82.
- They’ve covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games.
- The 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under has hit in 20 of their last 30 road games.
Twins’ top betting trends
- 1st Five Innings Team Total Under has hit in 19 of their last 26 games.
- Game Total Under in 48 of their last 84.
- They’ve hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 at home.
- Team Total Over has landed in 26 of their last 44 home games.
Pirates vs Twins: Player props to watch
Pirates
Nick Gonzales: Home Run Over in 3 of last 10 away games (+19.5 Units)
- Bryan Reynolds: Runs Under in 20 of last 25 away (+11.05 Units)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes: Hits Over in 13 of last 15 games
Twins
- Kody Clemens: Home Runs Over in 4 of last 6 home games (+15.3 Units)
- Royce Lewis: Hits Over in 9 of last 10 games
- Harrison Bader: Hits+Runs+RBIs Under in 12 of last 15 home games
ATS breakdown: Pirates vs Twins
- Pirates ATS: 47-45 Run Line | 38-56 Moneyline | 54-37 O/U Under
- Twins ATS: 45-45 Run Line | 45-48 Moneyline | 50-39 O/U Under
Pirates vs Twins: Score prediction and betting takeaway
Projected Final: Twins 5, Pirates 4
Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
Win Probability: Twins 54%, Pirates 46%
Joe Ryan’s ability to miss bats gives Minnesota a tactical edge, especially with Pittsburgh’s strikeout issues. While Paul Skenes remains a force on the mound, run support has been inconsistent. For bettors, the Twins on the moneyline and the Over look like the top plays.
Pirates vs Twins Odds
| Bet Type | Pirates | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-207) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +114 | -130 |
| Total Runs | O7 (+101) | U7 (-120) |
